CJAC Report Spotlights Rural, Urban, Suburban Firearm Violence Trends in North Carolina

The Criminal Justice Analysis Center in March released a comprehensive analysis of trends in firearm violence across rural, urban and suburban communities in North Carolina. These insights will help shape state and local leaders’ approach to the reduction of firearm-related injury and death.

“We now have a clearer picture of when, where and how firearm violence is occurring across North Carolina,” said Caroline Farmer, executive director of the Governor’s Crime Commission. “These findings inform state initiatives for grant funding, targeted prevention strategies and policies that address the growing firearm violence in rural areas across our state.”

Drawing on the most recent five years of available data, the analysis identifies trends in firearm homicide, nonfatal shootings, firearm suicide and other firearm-related harms. The findings highlight where prevention and policy efforts may have the strongest impact and illustrate how risk varies across age groups; racial and ethnic communities; and geographic regions.

The report identifies seven key findings:

• Statewide increases in firearm homicide peaked in 2021 before declining 29% through June 2025. Nonfatal shootings followed similar trends.
• Firearm suicide remains more prevalent than firearm homicide, with rates highest among older adults in rural counties.
• Young adults from 20 to 24 years old face the highest rates of interpersonal firearm violence, with elevated risk also seen among populations from 15 to 19 years old and from 25 to 29 years old.
• Black, non-Hispanic residents experience the highest rates of interpersonal firearm violence statewide, with rural Black communities facing the greatest burden. American Indian and Alaska Native non-Hispanic residents also experience disproportionately high risk of victimization, and Hispanic residents face higher risk in urban counties.
• Rural counties reported the highest levels of firearm violence between 2020 and 2024, including homicide, suicide, nonfatal shootings and unintentional firearm deaths.
• Urban counties matched rural counties in total firearm homicides over the five year period, recording far higher rates of other firearm crime and lower rates of firearm suicide.
• Suburban counties reported the lowest levels of interpersonal firearm violence, though firearm suicide rates remained the second-highest behind rural counties.

About the Criminal Justice Analysis Center: The Criminal Justice Analysis Center, part of the Governor's Crime Commission, draws together data collected by state and local agencies to produce criminal justice analyses. Its work informs conversation among the public; state and local government; and other criminal justice partners. ncdps.gov/cjac